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Scott Armstrong is professor of marketing, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA. 19104.He thanks the following people for assistance: Kim Rossini and Stuart Neuman aided in writing descriptions ofthe studies; Martha Lightwood copy edited the survey materials; Wende Gladfelter and Kenneth Weissmanadministered some of the surveys; Mitzi Vorachek arranged for data collection at Strath Haven High School;Larry Bortner assisted in coding the data; and Kenneth Weissman aided in the analysis of the results andcommented on various drafts. Useful comments were received from many people, among them were Dennis A.Ahlburg, David A. Bessler, Russell W. Belk, Stuart Bretschneider, A. S. C. Ehrenberg. George H. Haines, Jr.,Steven J. Hoch, Morris Holbrook, Raymond Hubbard, Shelby Hunt, Jacob Jacoby, David L. Kendall, Jerome B.Kernan, Joel Kupfersmid, Donald Lehmann, John D. C. Little, Richard Oliver, Brian Ratchford, William Ross,John R. Rossiter, Terence A. Shimp, and three anonymous reviewers.2 The gain in predictive validity might be viewed as a measure of scientific achievement. I administered aquestionnaire to a convenience sample of academics at the Marketing Science Conference at Duke University inMarch 1989. Most academics agreed with the statement that predictive validity provides one way to assessscientific achievement. On a scale from 1 (disagree strongly) to 5 (agree strongly), the 19 respondents averaged 4.The idea of using the relative predictive ability of experts over naive subjects as an operational measure ofscientific achievement also met with substantial agreement (3.8 on the scale).

Three groups thought to have varying knowledge of and ability to predict consumer behavior are academics,marketing practitioners, and consumers in general. A substantial number of academics spend much time studying thescientific work done in consumer behavior. The Journal provides a focal point for their efforts. Academics use theirscientific knowledge of consumer behavior as a basis for such activities as teaching, consulting for corporations, andtestifying in legal and regulatory proceedings. In contrast, marketing practitioners are not likely to be as familiarwith this scientific literature. However, practitioners gain expertise through their experience. This expertise mighthelp them make accurate predictions of consumer behavior. Finally, while few scientific studies on consumerbehavior reach the general public, consumers' personal experiences should help them predict certain aspects ofconsumer behavior.The above discussion implies two hypotheses about consumer behavior predictions. The first deals with the valueof expertise, while the second examines the value of scientific knowledge as the source of expertise.H1: Experts can make more accurate predictions than novices.H2: Academics can make more accurate predictions than practitioners.In a survey of the editorial board of JCR, an overwhelming majority agreed with these hypotheses.3